Paris FC 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Rodez travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 2W 3D 1L at Stade Charléty — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris FC 1.10 PPG, Rodez 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 43% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 36% | Rodez 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.07 xG and Rodez 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.124 | Rodez attack 0.959 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Data: 14 Paris FC games / 14 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 35% | Draw 29% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 67% | Rodez 43%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 35% | Draw 29% | Rodez 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Paris FC 1.07 / Rodez 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.037 / def 1.124 | Rodez attack 0.959 / def 1.129 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Rodez (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rodez xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Rodez kick off?
Paris FC vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Paris FC vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Rodez part of?
Paris FC vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 35% chance of winning, Rodez a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Paris FC and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris FC and Rodez in?
Paris FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.40
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.17
1.10
Rodez xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.10 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 3D 5L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.50 PPG, Rodez on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.14 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Rodez in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Rodez have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Rodez away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Rodez in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Paris FC's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Paris FC
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Rodez 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Rodez?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 67%, Rodez 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Paris FC and 33% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Rodez in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Paris FC's games and 50% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Paris FC's recent games and 33% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Rodez tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.07 xG and Rodez 1.10 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.12 against Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 35% | Draw 29% | Rodez 36%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 36%, Rodez 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.50 PPG, Rodez 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.