Paris FC 0-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Bastia at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bastia are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Paris FC have won 2, Bastia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bastia trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 51% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 43% | Bastia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.111 / defence 0.997 | Bastia attack 1.112 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.035. Data: 65 Paris FC games / 65 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 41% | Draw 30% | Bastia 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Paris FC 40% | Bastia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 41% | Draw 30% | Bastia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Paris FC 1.41 / Bastia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.111 / def 0.997 | Bastia attack 1.112 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Bastia kick off?
Paris FC vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Paris FC 0 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Paris FC vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Bastia part of?
Paris FC vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 41% chance of winning, Bastia a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Paris FC and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.11) and Bastia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.39
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.15
Bastia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.15 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 65 games, going 29W 17D 19L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.35 PPG from 65 outings (22W 22D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.60 PPG, Bastia on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 14W 10D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.09 points per game from 32 outings (9W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.06 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 29W 17D 19L in their last 65 games (1.60 PPG), while Bastia have gone 22W 22D 21L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Bastia away?
Paris FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Bastia away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Bastia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Bastia?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 50%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Paris FC) and 44% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bastia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Paris FC's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Paris FC's recent games and 44% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Bastia tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Paris FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Paris FC 0-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Bastia attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 41% | Draw 30% | Bastia 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 43%, Bastia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.60 PPG, Bastia 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.