Nimes 1-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nimes at 46%, yet in-form Dijon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nimes vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Nimes host Dijon at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 20 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Nimes stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Nimes have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Dijon — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Dijon's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dijon — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Nimes's games and 60% of Dijon's (from Nimes's last 10 home games and Dijon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Nimes, 1 for Dijon and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2022, ended Nimes 1–2 Dijon — a Dijon win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Nimes in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Dijon in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 51% versus Dijon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 52% | Dijon 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.70 xG and Dijon 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.243 / defence 1.260 | Dijon attack 0.964 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.077. Nimes's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dijon's projected output up. Data: built from Nimes's last 73 games and Dijon's last 73.

Result probabilities: Nimes 46% | Draw 24% | Dijon 29%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.16 | Draw 4.11 | Dijon 3.41. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Nimes as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dijon (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nimes's last 10 home games and Dijon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nimes 60% (last 10 home games) | Dijon 60% (last 10 away games).

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