Nancy 1-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Rodez at Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 3W 1D 5L at Stade Marcel Picot — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rodez have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Nancy) versus 1.10 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nancy, 1 for Rodez and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Rodez trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 37% versus Rodez 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 47% | Rodez 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.02 xG and Rodez 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.630 / defence 1.156 | Rodez attack 1.070 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.187. Nancy's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Nancy games / 53 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 26% | Draw 26% | Rodez 48%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Rodez 2.08. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 11% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 26% | Draw 26% | Rodez 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Nancy 1.02 / Rodez 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.630 / def 1.156 | Rodez attack 1.070 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Rodez (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Rodez xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Rodez kick off?
Nancy vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Rodez?
Nancy 1 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Nancy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Rodez part of?
Nancy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 26% chance of winning, Rodez a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nancy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Rodez?
Record (3 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 2 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Nancy and Rodez in?
Nancy (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
26%
3.83
26%
3.81
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.49
1.47
Rodez xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nancy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nancy and 1.47 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Nancy have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 6W 3D 10L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez's form line: 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nancy on 1.11 PPG, Rodez on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Rodez have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Rodez away?
Nancy's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.11 PPG; Rodez away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nancy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nancy
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Nancy 1-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 11%, Rodez 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Nancy) and 56% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Nancy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nancy have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Nancy's recent matches and 67% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Nancy's recent games and 56% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Rodez tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Nancy 1-3 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.02 xG and Rodez 1.47 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.63 / defence 1.16 against Rodez attack 1.07 / defence 1.29, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 26% | Draw 26% | Rodez 48%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 47%, Rodez 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 1.11 PPG, Rodez 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.