Nancy 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Marcel-Picot to face Nancy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 games at Stade Marcel-Picot this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guingamp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Guingamp are 0.80 PPG clear of Nancy in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Nancy — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 64% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 36% | Guingamp 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.82 xG and Guingamp 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.816 / defence 1.537 | Guingamp attack 0.855 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Data: 11 Nancy games / 11 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 21% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 47%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Guingamp 2.13. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 60% | Guingamp 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 21% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Nancy 0.82 / Guingamp 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.816 / def 1.537 | Guingamp attack 0.855 / def 1.079 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Guingamp xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Guingamp kick off?
Nancy vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Guingamp?
Nancy 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Nancy vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Guingamp part of?
Nancy vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 21% chance of winning, Guingamp a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nancy and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Guingamp in?
Nancy (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nancy's attack at 0.82x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.85x) against Nancy's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
21%
4.87
33%
3.06
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.15
1.34
Guingamp xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.5 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nancy and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Nancy and 1.34 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nancy come into this having played 11 games, going 0W 5D 6L for 0.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nancy's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nancy are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 0W 5D 6L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.40 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nancy have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Nancy
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Guingamp?
From 5 meetings on record, Nancy have won 2, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Nancy 1-0 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 60%, Guingamp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nancy) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 40%; Nancy have failed to score in 40% of games; Guingamp in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Nancy's recent matches and 40% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nancy's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Guingamp tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.82 xG and Guingamp 1.34 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nancy beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.82 / defence 1.54 against Guingamp attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 21% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 47%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Nancy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 36%, Guingamp 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.45. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.