Nancy 1-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade Marcel-Picot to face Nancy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nancy have collected 0.20 PPG across 5 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Auxerre are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Nancy — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 40% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 40% | Auxerre 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.64 xG and Auxerre 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.732 / defence 1.404 | Auxerre attack 0.909 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Nancy's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Nancy games / 5 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 13% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 55%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 7.69 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (55%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 40% | Auxerre 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 13% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Nancy 0.64 / Auxerre 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.732 / def 1.404 | Auxerre attack 0.909 / def 1.188 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Auxerre xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Auxerre kick off?
Nancy vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Auxerre?
Nancy 1 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is Nancy vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Auxerre part of?
Nancy vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 13% chance of winning, Auxerre a 55% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nancy and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Auxerre in?
Nancy (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nancy's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.91x) against Nancy's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-2 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
13%
7.67
32%
3.10
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.13
1.49
Auxerre xG
7.67
13%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
3%
34.02
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 17.6 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Nancy and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Nancy and 1.49 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nancy's recent record stands at 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, a 0.20 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nancy are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 60%.
Defensively: Auxerre in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Nancy or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Auxerre in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Auxerre 1-1 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 40%, Auxerre 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nancy) and 60% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 40%; Nancy have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nancy's recent matches and 60% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nancy's recent games and 60% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Nancy 1-4 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.64 xG and Auxerre 1.49 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.73 / defence 1.40 against Auxerre attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 13% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 55%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 40%, Auxerre 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nancy shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.