Metz 3-6 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Metz and Guingamp meet at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Metz have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Metz, 2.00 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Metz — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 48% versus Guingamp 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 50% | Guingamp 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.35 xG and Guingamp 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.996 / defence 0.929 | Guingamp attack 1.094 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.128. Data: 7 Metz games / 44 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 41% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Metz 40% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 41% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Metz 1.35 / Guingamp 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.996 / def 0.929 | Guingamp attack 1.094 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Metz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Guingamp xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Guingamp kick off?
Metz vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Metz 3 - 6 Guingamp.
Where is Metz vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Guingamp part of?
Metz vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 41% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Metz and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Guingamp in?
Metz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Metz's attack rating (1.00) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.09x) against Metz's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.67
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Metz xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Guingamp xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Metz and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Metz and 1.15 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Metz come into this having played 44 games, going 9W 14D 21L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.55 PPG from 44 outings (18W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Metz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Metz's home form reads 5W 7D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Metz are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.39 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 9W 14D 21L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 18W 14D 12L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.00 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Metz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-6 on 12 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Metz
1
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-3 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Guingamp?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 50%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Metz) and 46% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 36% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Metz's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Metz's recent games and 46% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Guingamp tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-6 hammering of Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Metz 3-6 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.35 xG and Guingamp 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-6 for 9 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp outscored their 1.15 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 41% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 32%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 50%, Guingamp 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.