Metz 1-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Dijon at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Metz) versus 1.30 (Dijon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Metz in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dijon in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 48% versus Dijon 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 50% | Dijon 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.32 xG and Dijon 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 1.208 / defence 0.890 | Dijon attack 0.937 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.093. Data: 4 Metz games / 42 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 46% | Draw 28% | Dijon 26%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Dijon 3.85. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Metz 40% | Dijon 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 46% | Draw 28% | Dijon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Metz 1.32 / Dijon 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 1.208 / def 0.890 | Dijon attack 0.937 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Metz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Dijon xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Dijon kick off?
Metz vs Dijon kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Dijon?
Metz 1 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Metz vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Dijon part of?
Metz vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 46% chance of winning, Dijon a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Metz and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Dijon in?
Metz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Metz's attack rating (1.21) and Dijon's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.54
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Metz xG
Total xG
2.23
0.91
Dijon xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Metz and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Metz and 0.91 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Metz come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 14D 20L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (15W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Metz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Metz's home form reads 5W 6D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Dijon in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Dijon have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Dijon away?
Metz's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.05 PPG; Dijon away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Metz and Dijon runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Metz
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Dijon 0-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 50%, Dijon 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Metz) and 55% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 35% of games; Dijon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Metz's recent matches and 55% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Metz's recent games and 55% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Dijon tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Dijon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Metz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Metz 1-2 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.32 xG and Dijon 0.91 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.21 / defence 0.89 against Dijon attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 46% | Draw 28% | Dijon 26%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 50%, Dijon 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.