Martigues 0-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Martigues face RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Jean Laville plays host to Martigues versus RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2 (matchday 12). Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Martigues (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Martigues have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 home games (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 0.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
RED Star FC 93's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
RED Star FC 93's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 1D 4L (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Martigues against 1.10 for RED Star FC 93. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Martigues goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
RED Star FC 93 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Martigues 27% versus RED Star FC 93 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Martigues 46% | RED Star FC 93 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.73 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.433 / defence 1.466 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.820 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.123. Martigues's attack rating of 0.433 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Martigues's defence rating of 1.466 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RED Star FC 93's projected output up. Data: built from Martigues's last 11 games and RED Star FC 93's last 11.
Result probabilities: Martigues 20% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 52%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 4.93 | Draw 3.55 | RED Star FC 93 1.94. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Martigues 17% (last 6 home games) | RED Star FC 93 50% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Jean Laville • Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 20% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Martigues 0.73 / RED Star FC 93 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.433 / def 1.466 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.820 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.35
RED Star FC 93 xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 FAQs
What time does Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 November 2024 at Stade Jean Laville.
What was the final score in Martigues vs RED Star FC 93?
Martigues 0 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Laville.
What competition is Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 20% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Martigues and RED Star FC 93 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Martigues's attack at 0.43x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (0.82x) against Martigues's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Martigues's last 11 games and RED Star FC 93's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
20%
4.93
28%
3.55
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Martigues xG
Total xG
2.08
1.35
RED Star FC 93 xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
5%
19.02
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 16.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Martigues and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Martigues and 1.35 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Martigues's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 6L across 11 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Martigues against 1.00 for RED Star FC 93. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Martigues have managed 0W 1D 5L from their last 6 home games — 0.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.73 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Martigues are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Martigues (Home) vs RED Star FC 93 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Martigues
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 Form FAQs
What form are Martigues and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Martigues at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Martigues at home: 0.17 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Martigues and RED Star FC 93, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Martigues
0
Draws
2
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and RED Star FC 93?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Martigues have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2025: RED Star FC 93 1-0 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Martigues and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Martigues see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Martigues) and 50% (RED Star FC 93) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Martigues) and 50% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Martigues have failed to score in 83% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Martigues vs RED Star FC 93 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Martigues and RED Star FC 93 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Martigues's recent matches and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Martigues and RED Star FC 93 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Martigues's recent games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Martigues and RED Star FC 93 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Martigues's recent matches and 83% of RED Star FC 93's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Martigues 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Martigues 0-1 at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.73 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.35 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.43 / defence 1.47 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 20% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 52%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 46%, RED Star FC 93 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Martigues's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Martigues 0.73 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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