Laval 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Monday 23 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Laval's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Laval's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Laval's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Saint Etienne's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Laval, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Laval 2–1 Saint Etienne — a Laval win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 46% versus Saint Etienne 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 54% | Saint Etienne 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.10 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.043 / defence 0.753 | Saint Etienne attack 1.047 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.096. Laval have a tight defence (rating 0.753), which is pulling Saint Etienne's projected output down. Data: built from Laval's last 48 games and Saint Etienne's last 48.
Result probabilities: Laval 40% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 28%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.50 | Draw 3.09 | Saint Etienne 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Laval 50% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 40% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Laval 1.10 / Saint Etienne 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.043 / def 0.753 | Saint Etienne attack 1.047 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Laval (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Saint Etienne xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Laval vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Laval vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 23 October 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Saint Etienne?
Laval 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Laval vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Saint Etienne part of?
Laval vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 40% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Laval and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Laval vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.04) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.05x) against Laval's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 48 games and Saint Etienne's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.09
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Laval xG
Total xG
1.96
0.86
Saint Etienne xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Laval and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Laval and 0.86 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval's recent record stands at 22W 5D 21L from 48 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 14L across 48 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Laval against 1.54 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Laval have managed 14W 2D 8L from their last 24 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.52 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Laval (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Laval vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 22W 5D 21L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Saint Etienne away?
Laval's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.83 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Laval or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Laval and Saint Etienne, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Laval
2
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Saint Etienne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Saint Etienne 2-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 54%, Saint Etienne 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Laval and 62% for Saint Etienne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Saint Etienne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Laval's games and 75% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Laval and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Laval's matches and 62% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Laval and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Laval's recent matches and 62% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.10 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.04 / defence 0.75 against Saint Etienne attack 1.05 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 40% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 28%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 54%, Saint Etienne 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.48 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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