Laval 2-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Laval at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval at Stade Francis Le Basser this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Niort (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Laval, 0.80 for Niort — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 54% versus Niort 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 62% | Niort 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.68 xG and Niort 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.128 / defence 1.346 | Niort attack 0.896 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Laval's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Laval games / 51 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 47% | Draw 24% | Niort 29%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Niort 3.45. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Laval 67% | Niort 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 47% | Draw 24% | Niort 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Laval 1.68 / Niort 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.128 / def 1.346 | Niort attack 0.896 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Laval (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Niort xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Niort kick off?
Laval vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Niort?
Laval 2 - 1 Niort.
Where is Laval vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Niort part of?
Laval vs Niort is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 47% chance of winning, Niort a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Laval and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Niort in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Niort (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.13) and Niort's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.90x) against Laval's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.16
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Laval xG
Total xG
2.94
1.27
Niort xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Laval and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Laval and 1.27 for Niort, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Laval have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 4W 2D 7L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Laval against 0.85 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Laval have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That actually lags their 1.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Niort have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.77 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Niort in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Niort have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Niort away?
Laval's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 0.67 PPG; Niort away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Laval or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Niort in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Laval
0
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Niort have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Niort 3-2 Laval.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 67%, Niort 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Laval and 67% for Niort. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Niort in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Laval's recent matches and 33% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Laval's matches and 67% of Niort's.
Do Laval and Niort tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Niort in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Niort 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Niort 2-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.68 xG and Niort 1.27 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.13 / defence 1.35 against Niort attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 47% | Draw 24% | Niort 29%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 62%, Niort 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.08 PPG, Niort 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.