Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Guingamp welcome Valenciennes to Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Guingamp have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Guingamp have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Valenciennes — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Guingamp have won 1, Valenciennes 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Guingamp 0–0 Valenciennes — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 48% versus Valenciennes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Valenciennes 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.24 xG and Valenciennes 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.947 / defence 1.110 | Valenciennes attack 0.725 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Guingamp's last 66 games and Valenciennes's last 66.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 44% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.26 | Draw 3.27 | Valenciennes 3.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Guingamp 50% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 44% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Guingamp 1.24 / Valenciennes 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.947 / def 1.110 | Valenciennes attack 0.725 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Valenciennes xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Valenciennes kick off?
Guingamp vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Guingamp vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Valenciennes part of?
Guingamp vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 44% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Guingamp and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Guingamp vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.95) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 66 games and Valenciennes's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.27
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.11
0.87
Valenciennes xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.87 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 66 games, going 25W 19D 22L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 0.94 PPG from 66 outings (12W 26D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 11W 9D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 0.72 points per game from their last 32 away games (5W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.89 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
Guingamp (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Guingamp vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 19D 22L in their last 66 games (1.42 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 12W 26D 28L in their last 66 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Valenciennes away?
Guingamp's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.31 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2024, when Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Guingamp's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Guingamp
3
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 47%, Valenciennes 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Guingamp) and 38% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 34% of games; Valenciennes in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Guingamp's recent matches and 38% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Guingamp's recent matches and 59% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Valenciennes 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.24 xG and Valenciennes 0.87 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valenciennes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Valenciennes attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 44% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Valenciennes 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valenciennes's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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