Guingamp 1-2 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Guingamp welcome Sochaux to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.25 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.25 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 5W 1D 2L from 8 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 0.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sochaux — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.25). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Guingamp 38% | Sochaux 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 12% | Sochaux 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.74 xG and Sochaux 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.866 / defence 1.206 | Sochaux attack 0.865 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Data: 8 Guingamp games / 8 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 21% | Draw 39% | Sochaux 40%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.76 | Draw 2.56 | Sochaux 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 67% | Sochaux 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 21% | Draw 39% | Sochaux 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Guingamp 0.74 / Sochaux 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.866 / def 1.206 | Sochaux attack 0.865 / def 1.031 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sochaux xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Sochaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Sochaux kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Guingamp 1 - 2 Sochaux.
Where is Guingamp vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Sochaux part of?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 21% chance of winning, Sochaux a 40% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Guingamp and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.62 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
21%
4.87
39%
2.54
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.85
1.10
Sochaux xG
4.87
21%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 17.4 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.10 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 4D 2L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sochaux's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.12 scored and 0.62 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux in 25%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sochaux in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 0.67 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sochaux in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Sochaux runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Sochaux have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sochaux tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 67%, Sochaux 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Guingamp and 33% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 33%; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Sochaux in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Guingamp's recent matches and 33% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Guingamp's recent games and 33% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Sochaux tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.74 xG and Sochaux 1.10 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sochaux outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Sochaux attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 21% | Draw 39% | Sochaux 40%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 19% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 12%, Sochaux 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sochaux's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.