Guingamp vs Sochaux – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Guingamp welcome Sochaux to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 2W 5D 2L from 9 outings — 1.22 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 0.80 PPG versus Sochaux's 1.22. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Sochaux have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Guingamp's 1 victories.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
It is worth noting that Sochaux have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 67% versus Sochaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 67% | Sochaux 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.47 xG and Sochaux 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Sochaux attack 0.762 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 9 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sochaux 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Sochaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Guingamp 1.47 / Sochaux 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.050 / def 1.181 | Sochaux attack 0.762 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sochaux xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Sochaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Sochaux part of?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Sochaux a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Guingamp and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 4W.
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sochaux (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.66
1.18
Sochaux xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.18 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 0.89 PPG, Sochaux on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Guingamp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sochaux's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.78 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sochaux in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Sochaux away?
Guingamp's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.40 PPG; Sochaux away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Sochaux in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Sochaux runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
4
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
From 5 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Sochaux have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guingamp at 80%, Sochaux at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Guingamp) and 20% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 40%; Sochaux in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Sochaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Guingamp's games and 60% of Sochaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Guingamp's recent games and 20% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Sochaux tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.