Guingamp 2-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 37%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Laval travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Laval — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Laval and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Laval in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 56% versus Laval 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 64% | Laval 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.11 xG and Laval 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.995 / defence 1.204 | Laval attack 0.792 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.216. Data: 46 Guingamp games / 45 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Laval 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 60% | Laval 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Guingamp 1.11 / Laval 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.995 / def 1.204 | Laval attack 0.792 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Laval (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Laval xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Laval kick off?
Guingamp vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Guingamp 2 - 0 Laval.
Where is Guingamp vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Laval part of?
Guingamp vs Laval is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 34% chance of winning, Laval a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Guingamp and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 0 | Laval 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Laval in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Laval (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.99) and Laval's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.50
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.27
1.16
Laval xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.16 for Laval, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 8D 18L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval's form line: 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Laval on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
On the road, Laval have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.16 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Laval in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Laval have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Laval away?
Guingamp's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.59 PPG; Laval away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Laval specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, Laval have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Laval?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Laval see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Laval 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Guingamp) and 36% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 32%; Laval in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 46% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Guingamp's recent games and 36% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Laval tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Laval in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Laval 2-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.11 xG and Laval 1.16 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Laval attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 37%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 64%, Laval 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Laval's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Laval 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.