Guingamp vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Guingamp welcome Dijon to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.78. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's away record: 1W 3D 1L from 5 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Dijon's 1.33 PPG return is 0.53 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Dijon and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Dijon trading profile (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 67% and Dijon 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 67% | Dijon 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.77 xG and Dijon 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Dijon attack 0.996 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 9 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 24% | Dijon 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Dijon 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Guingamp dominate the H2H record, yet Dijon are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dijon (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Dijon 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 24% | Dijon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Guingamp 1.77 / Dijon 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.050 / def 1.181 | Dijon attack 0.996 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Dijon xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dijon kick off?
Guingamp vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dijon part of?
Guingamp vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Dijon a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Guingamp and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 2 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.05x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.21
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.31
1.55
Dijon xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.55 for Dijon, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Guingamp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.78 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dijon in 89%.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dijon away?
Guingamp's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.40 PPG; Dijon away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dijon?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guingamp at 80%, Dijon at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Guingamp and 40% for Dijon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Guingamp's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Guingamp's matches and 40% of Dijon's.
Do Guingamp and Dijon tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dijon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.