Guingamp 2-3 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Guingamp welcome Bastia to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 2W 2D 2L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 64% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 50% | Bastia 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.46 xG and Bastia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.188 / defence 1.264 | Bastia attack 0.628 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Guingamp games / 14 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 53% | Draw 27% | Bastia 21%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 4.76. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 83% | Bastia 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 53% | Draw 27% | Bastia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Guingamp 1.46 / Bastia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.188 / def 1.264 | Bastia attack 0.628 / def 1.350 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Bastia xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bastia kick off?
Guingamp vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Guingamp 2 - 3 Bastia.
Where is Guingamp vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bastia part of?
Guingamp vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 53% chance of winning, Bastia a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Bastia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
Bastia xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.81 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 4W 6D 4L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bastia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Bastia have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bastia away?
Guingamp's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.33 PPG; Bastia away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
4
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Bastia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guingamp at 83%, Bastia at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 50% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Guingamp's games and 50% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bastia tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Guingamp 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Guingamp 2-3 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.46 xG and Bastia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 1.26 against Bastia attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 53% | Draw 27% | Bastia 21%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Bastia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Bastia 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Bastia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.