Grenoble 2-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Quevilly at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grenoble and Quevilly meet at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: D W W L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Quevilly are 1.50 PPG clear of Grenoble in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.75 vs 0.25). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Grenoble — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 0% versus Quevilly 100%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 50% | Quevilly 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.64 xG and Quevilly 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.755 / defence 1.295 | Quevilly attack 0.988 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.255. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Grenoble games / 4 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 11% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 57%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 9.09 | Draw 3.23 | Quevilly 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (57%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 0% | Quevilly 100%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 11% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Grenoble 0.64 / Quevilly 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.755 / def 1.295 | Quevilly attack 0.988 / def 1.194 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Quevilly xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Quevilly kick off?
Grenoble vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Grenoble 2 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Grenoble vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Quevilly part of?
Grenoble vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 11% chance of winning, Quevilly a 57% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Grenoble and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grenoble and Quevilly in?
Grenoble (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.76x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.99x) against Grenoble's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
11%
8.78
31%
3.21
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.25
1.61
Quevilly xG
8.78
11%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
2%
43.75
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 17.0 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.61 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Grenoble come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Quevilly in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Grenoble
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Quevilly 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Quevilly?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 0%, Quevilly 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Grenoble and 75% for Quevilly. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grenoble have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Grenoble's recent matches and 100% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Grenoble's matches and 75% of Quevilly's.
Do Grenoble and Quevilly tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Quevilly 2-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.64 xG and Quevilly 1.61 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Quevilly attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 11% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 57%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Grenoble win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 50%, Quevilly 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Grenoble winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Grenoble scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.