Grenoble vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Guingamp at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.10 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Grenoble, 2 for Guingamp and 7 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 51% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 40% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.99 xG and Guingamp 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.717 / defence 1.018 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Grenoble games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 36%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Guingamp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 40% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 4 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Grenoble 0.99 / Guingamp 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.717 / def 1.018 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Guingamp xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Guingamp kick off?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 4 December 2026 at Stade des Alpes.
Where is Grenoble vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Guingamp part of?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 32% chance of winning, Guingamp a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Grenoble and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Record (10 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 7 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.72) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.17
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.06
1.06
Guingamp xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.06 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 17D 16L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (12W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.09 PPG, Guingamp on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grenoble's home form reads 5W 12D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 10W 17D 16L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Guingamp away?
Grenoble's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.29 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grenoble and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Grenoble
7
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 48%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Grenoble) and 62% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 38% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Grenoble's recent matches and 62% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Grenoble's recent games and 62% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Guingamp tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.