Grenoble 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Guingamp at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.00 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Grenoble, 2 for Guingamp and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 53% versus Guingamp 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 51% | Guingamp 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.48 xG and Guingamp 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.896 / defence 0.963 | Guingamp attack 1.258 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.231. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Grenoble games / 45 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 37% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 38%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Guingamp 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 80% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 37% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Grenoble 1.48 / Guingamp 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.896 / def 0.963 | Guingamp attack 1.258 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Guingamp xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Guingamp kick off?
Grenoble vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Grenoble vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Guingamp part of?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Grenoble and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 5 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in?
Grenoble (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.90) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.09
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.97
1.49
Guingamp xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.49 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 11D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.49 PPG from 45 outings (20W 7D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.24 PPG, Guingamp on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grenoble's home form reads 9W 8D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (9W 2D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.58 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 20W 7D 18L in their last 45 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Guingamp away?
Grenoble's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.59 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grenoble and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Grenoble
7
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 59%, Guingamp 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Grenoble) and 64% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Grenoble's games and 64% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grenoble vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Grenoble's recent games and 64% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Guingamp tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 12, as Grenoble and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.48 xG and Guingamp 1.49 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Guingamp attack 1.26 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 37% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 38%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 51%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.24 PPG, Guingamp 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.