Grenoble 0-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grenoble and Dijon meet at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grenoble have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade des Alpes — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Grenoble's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Dijon's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Grenoble, 2 for Dijon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 31% versus Dijon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 35% | Dijon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.48 xG and Dijon 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.100 / defence 0.967 | Dijon attack 0.968 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.051. Data: 52 Grenoble games / 52 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 49% | Draw 26% | Dijon 25%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Dijon 4.00. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Grenoble 50% | Dijon 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 49% | Draw 26% | Dijon 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Grenoble 1.48 / Dijon 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.100 / def 0.967 | Dijon attack 0.968 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dijon xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Dijon kick off?
Grenoble vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Dijon?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Grenoble vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Dijon part of?
Grenoble vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 49% chance of winning, Dijon a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Grenoble and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 0 | Dijon 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Dijon in?
Grenoble (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Dijon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.10) and Dijon's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.97x) against Grenoble's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.82
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.46
0.98
Dijon xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.98 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 12D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (16W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Grenoble against 1.17 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 12W 6D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Dijon in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Dijon have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Dijon away?
Grenoble's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.68 PPG; Dijon away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Dijon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grenoble
1
Draws
3
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 0, Dijon have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 44%, Dijon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Grenoble) and 60% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dijon in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Grenoble's recent matches and 60% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Grenoble's recent games and 60% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Dijon tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Dijon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 15, as Grenoble and Dijon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.48 xG and Dijon 0.98 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dijon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Dijon attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 49% | Draw 26% | Dijon 25%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 35%, Dijon 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dijon's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.33 PPG, Dijon 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.