Grenoble 0-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Grenoble welcome Bordeaux to Stade des Alpes. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Grenoble — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.50 PPG versus Bordeaux's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 29% versus Bordeaux 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 32% | Bordeaux 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.11 xG and Bordeaux 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.979 / defence 0.852 | Bordeaux attack 1.103 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.111. Data: 41 Grenoble games / 3 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 37% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 33%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Bordeaux 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 40% | Bordeaux 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 37% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Grenoble 1.11 / Bordeaux 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.979 / def 0.852 | Bordeaux attack 1.103 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bordeaux xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Bordeaux kick off?
Grenoble vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Bordeaux?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Grenoble vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Bordeaux part of?
Grenoble vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 37% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Grenoble and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grenoble and Bordeaux in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.98) and Bordeaux's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.40
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.16
1.04
Bordeaux xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.04 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 9D 19L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 0.93 PPG from 41 outings (8W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.17 PPG, Bordeaux on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grenoble's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.37 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Bordeaux in 63%.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 8W 14D 19L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Bordeaux away?
Grenoble's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.45 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grenoble and Bordeaux runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2023, when Bordeaux won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Grenoble
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 40%, Bordeaux 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 35% for Grenoble and 85% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 30% of games; Bordeaux in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Grenoble's recent matches and 65% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 35% of Grenoble's matches and 85% of Bordeaux's.
Do Grenoble and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and Bordeaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.11 xG and Bordeaux 1.04 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bordeaux landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Bordeaux attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 37% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 33%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 32%, Bordeaux 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.17 PPG, Bordeaux 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.