Grenoble 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Annecy at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.20 PPG versus Annecy's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Grenoble, 0 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Grenoble 27% | Annecy 35%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 31% | Annecy 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.35 xG and Annecy 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.791 / defence 0.812 | Annecy attack 1.062 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.039. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Grenoble games / 26 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 46% | Draw 31% | Annecy 23%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Annecy 4.35. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 30% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 46% | Draw 31% | Annecy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Grenoble 1.35 / Annecy 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.791 / def 0.812 | Annecy attack 1.062 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Annecy xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Annecy kick off?
Grenoble vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Grenoble 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Grenoble vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Annecy part of?
Grenoble vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 46% chance of winning, Annecy a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Grenoble and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.79x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.24
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
Annecy xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.90 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 26 games, going 10W 8D 8L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.46 PPG, Annecy on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.08 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Annecy in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 games (1.46 PPG), while Annecy have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Annecy away?
Grenoble's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.69 PPG; Annecy away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Annecy in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Grenoble's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grenoble
3
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Annecy?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 31%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Grenoble and 46% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Annecy in 31%; Grenoble have failed to score in 38% of games; Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Grenoble's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Grenoble's recent games and 46% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Annecy tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, Annecy in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.35 xG and Annecy 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.79 / defence 0.81 against Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 1.47, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 46% | Draw 31% | Annecy 23%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 31%, Annecy 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.46 PPG, Annecy 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.