Grenoble 2-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Grenoble's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Amiens's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 4W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with Grenoble winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 54% versus Amiens 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 52% | Amiens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.18 xG and Amiens 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.803 / defence 1.008 | Amiens attack 0.940 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.188. Data: 54 Grenoble games / 54 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 37% | Draw 28% | Amiens 35%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Amiens 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 50% | Amiens 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 37% | Draw 28% | Amiens 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Grenoble 1.18 / Amiens 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.803 / def 1.008 | Amiens attack 0.940 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Amiens xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Amiens kick off?
Grenoble vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Amiens?
Grenoble 2 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Grenoble vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Amiens part of?
Grenoble vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 37% chance of winning, Amiens a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Grenoble and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Amiens?
Record (9 meetings): Grenoble 4W | Draws 1 | Amiens 4W.
What form are Grenoble and Amiens in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.80x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.94x) against Grenoble's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.53
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.30
1.13
Amiens xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.13 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 14D 22L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 18W 8D 28L from 54 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Grenoble against 1.15 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 6W 3D 18L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.11 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Amiens in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 8D 28L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Amiens away?
Grenoble's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.59 PPG; Amiens away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Grenoble have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 4-1 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Grenoble
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Grenoble 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Amiens?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 56%, Amiens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Grenoble) and 52% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 26% of games; Amiens in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Grenoble's recent matches and 48% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Grenoble's recent games and 52% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Amiens tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Amiens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Amiens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.18 xG and Amiens 1.13 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 37% | Draw 28% | Amiens 35%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 52%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.26 PPG, Amiens 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.