Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Clermont Foot travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Estac Troyes's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Estac Troyes, 4 for Clermont Foot and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Estac Troyes 0–0 Clermont Foot — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 36% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 48% | Clermont Foot 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.89 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.374 / defence 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.945 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.201. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack rating of 1.374 — their 1.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 59 games and Clermont Foot's last 59.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 24%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.92 | Draw 4.18 | Clermont Foot 4.15. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.89 / Clermont Foot 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.374 / def 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.945 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Clermont Foot xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Estac Troyes 2 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 52% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 59 games and Clermont Foot's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.18
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.13
1.24
Clermont Foot xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
4%
27.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.24 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 27W 11D 21L from 59 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 27L across 59 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estac Troyes by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 17W 5D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 7W 7D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 27W 11D 21L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 14W 18D 27L in their last 59 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.87 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 33%, Clermont Foot 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 47% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 33% of games; Clermont Foot in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 47% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 47% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 67% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.89 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.37 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 24%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 48%, Clermont Foot 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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