Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Dunkerque welcome Bastia to Stade Marcel Tribut. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Marcel Tribut — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Dunkerque have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Dunkerque have won 2, Bastia 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bastia trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Bastia 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 45% | Bastia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.06 xG and Bastia 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.079 / defence 0.828 | Bastia attack 0.733 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.207. Data: 57 Dunkerque games / 56 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 43% | Draw 32% | Bastia 25%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Bastia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 40% | Bastia 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 43% | Draw 32% | Bastia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Dunkerque 1.06 / Bastia 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.079 / def 0.828 | Bastia attack 0.733 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Bastia xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Bastia kick off?
Dunkerque vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Dunkerque 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Dunkerque vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Bastia part of?
Dunkerque vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 43% chance of winning, Bastia a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Dunkerque and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Record (7 meetings): Dunkerque 2W | Draws 2 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.10
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.79
0.73
Bastia xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.73 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 56 games, going 27W 12D 17L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.16 PPG from 56 outings (14W 23D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bastia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.75 points per game from 28 outings (3W 12D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.96 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Bastia have gone 14W 23D 19L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Bastia away?
Dunkerque's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 2.00 PPG; Bastia away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
3
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 46%, Bastia 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dunkerque) and 21% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bastia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 32% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dunkerque's recent games and 21% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Bastia tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bastia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.06 xG and Bastia 0.73 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Bastia attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 43% | Draw 32% | Bastia 25%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 45%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.