Dunkerque 2-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Dunkerque welcome Bastia to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dunkerque at 1.40 PPG versus Bastia's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Dunkerque have won 1, Bastia 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bastia trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Bastia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.20 xG and Bastia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.040 / defence 1.049 | Bastia attack 0.947 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. Data: 43 Dunkerque games / 43 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 36% | Draw 28% | Bastia 36%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 50% | Bastia 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 36% | Draw 28% | Bastia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Dunkerque 1.20 / Bastia 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.040 / def 1.049 | Bastia attack 0.947 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bastia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Bastia kick off?
Dunkerque vs Bastia kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Dunkerque 2 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Dunkerque vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Bastia part of?
Dunkerque vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 36% chance of winning, Bastia a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dunkerque and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Record (4 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 1 | Bastia 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.61
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Bastia xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.20 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 10D 18L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.44 PPG from 43 outings (17W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 1.28 PPG, Bastia on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 6W 3D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.14 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Bastia have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.00 PPG; Bastia away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
3
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 33%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dunkerque) and 38% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 48% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 48% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dunkerque's recent games and 38% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Bastia tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bastia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Bastia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Bastia 2-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.20 xG and Bastia 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Bastia attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 36% | Draw 28% | Bastia 36%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Bastia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.28 PPG, Bastia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.