Dijon 1-3 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 26 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.84 xG and Sochaux 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sochaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.856 / away 1.219. Data: 0 Dijon games / 0 Sochaux games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dijon 22% | Draw 38% | Sochaux 40%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Sochaux 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 22% | Draw 38% | Sochaux 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Dijon 0.84 / Sochaux 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sochaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.856 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sochaux xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Sochaux kick off?
Dijon vs Sochaux kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Sochaux?
Dijon 1 - 3 Sochaux.
Where is Dijon vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Sochaux part of?
Dijon vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 22% chance of winning, Sochaux a 40% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dijon and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Sochaux in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dijon's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (0.85x) against Dijon's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
22%
4.56
38%
2.65
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.03
1.19
Sochaux xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dijon and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Dijon and 1.19 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Pre-Season
Sochaux
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Sochaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-2 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Dijon 1-3 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 0.84 xG and Sochaux 1.19 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sochaux outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sochaux attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 22% | Draw 38% | Sochaux 40%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.