Clermont Foot 0-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for RED Star FC 93 and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 57% versus RED Star FC 93 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | RED Star FC 93 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.981 / defence 0.981 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.941 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.173. Data: 61 Clermont Foot games / 60 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | RED Star FC 93 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 70% | RED Star FC 93 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Clermont Foot 1.08 / RED Star FC 93 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.981 / def 0.981 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.941 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.08
RED Star FC 93 xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 35% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 3 | RED Star FC 93 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
35%
2.87
30%
3.31
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.17
1.08
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.08 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 18D 28L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 20W 19D 21L from 60 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.00 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (7W 11D 11L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 9D 11L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.13 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 games (1.00 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.10 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 66%, RED Star FC 93 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Clermont Foot) and 45% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 31%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 34% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Clermont Foot's games and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 45% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.08 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, RED Star FC 93 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.