Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Clermont Foot welcome Dunkerque to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 1.10 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 1, Dunkerque 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 60% and Dunkerque 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 44% | Dunkerque 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.43 xG and Dunkerque 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.811 / defence 0.891 | Dunkerque attack 1.114 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Clermont Foot games / 43 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 34%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 40% | Dunkerque 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Clermont Foot 1.43 / Dunkerque 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.811 / def 0.891 | Dunkerque attack 1.114 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dunkerque xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque part of?
Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 40% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Clermont Foot and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 2 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.81x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.76
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.74
1.31
Dunkerque xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.31 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 9W 17D 17L from 43 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 17L across 43 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.02 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 5W 9D 7L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.53 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Dunkerque in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.14 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Dunkerque won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
From 5 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Dunkerque have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 62%, Dunkerque 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Clermont Foot) and 67% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 33% of games; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Clermont Foot's games and 67% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 67% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.