Caen 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Caen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Caen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Paris FC have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Caen. A 0.70 PPG lead over Paris FC (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Caen 2–0 Paris FC — a Caen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 55% versus Paris FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 51% | Paris FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.19 xG and Paris FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.081 / defence 0.733 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Caen have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Paris FC's projected output down. Data: built from Caen's last 65 games and Paris FC's last 65.
Result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.17 | Draw 3.15 | Paris FC 4.49. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Caen's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 30% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 46% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Caen 1.19 / Paris FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.081 / def 0.733 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Caen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Paris FC xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Caen vs Paris FC kick off?
Caen vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Paris FC?
Caen 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Caen vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Paris FC part of?
Caen vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 46% chance of winning, Paris FC a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Caen and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Caen vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.08) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.94x) against Caen's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 65 games and Paris FC's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.15
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Caen xG
Total xG
1.93
0.74
Paris FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Caen and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Caen and 0.74 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Caen have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 28W 17D 20L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 24W 19D 22L from 65 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Caen against 1.40 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 32 home games (18W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Caen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Paris FC have gone 11W 12D 9L from their last 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Caen vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 28W 17D 20L in their last 65 games (1.55 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Paris FC away?
Caen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.97 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Caen or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 31 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Paris FC have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Caen
1
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Paris FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 2, Paris FC have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Caen and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 March 2025: Paris FC 4-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 50%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Caen) and 34% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Caen's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Caen and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Caen's recent games and 34% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Caen's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.19 xG and Paris FC 0.74 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.08 / defence 0.73 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 46% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 22%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 51%, Paris FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.55 PPG, Paris FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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