Boulogne vs Saint Etienne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 37%, yet in-form Saint Etienne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Boulogne vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Boulogne versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's home record at : 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 1.00 PPG clear of Boulogne in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Saint Etienne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boulogne lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Boulogne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 48% versus Saint Etienne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 39% | Saint Etienne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.22 xG and Saint Etienne 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.859 / defence 0.933 | Saint Etienne attack 0.921 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Data: 45 Boulogne games / 45 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 37% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 35%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Boulogne 60% | Saint Etienne 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 37% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Boulogne 1.22 / Saint Etienne 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.859 / def 0.933 | Saint Etienne attack 0.921 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Saint Etienne xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Boulogne vs Saint Etienne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027.
What competition is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne part of?
Boulogne vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 37% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Boulogne and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Boulogne and Saint Etienne in?
Boulogne (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.86x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.92x) against Boulogne's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.59
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Saint Etienne xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.17 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 16D 19L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 25W 8D 13L from 46 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 10W 4D 9L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.65 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 11W 16D 19L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 8D 13L in their last 46 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.96 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Boulogne
0
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-1 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 61%, Saint Etienne 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Boulogne) and 56% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 35%; Boulogne have failed to score in 26% of games; Saint Etienne in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Boulogne's recent matches and 44% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Boulogne's matches and 56% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Boulogne and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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