Boulogne vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne at this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Boulogne against 1.10 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rodez in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boulogne lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 49% versus Rodez 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 40% | Rodez 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.33 xG and Rodez 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.807 / defence 0.980 | Rodez attack 1.000 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Boulogne games / 42 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 37% | Draw 27% | Rodez 35%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 37% | Draw 27% | Rodez 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Boulogne 1.33 / Rodez 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.807 / def 0.980 | Rodez attack 1.000 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rodez xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Rodez kick off?
Boulogne vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026.
What competition is Boulogne vs Rodez part of?
Boulogne vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 37% chance of winning, Rodez a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Boulogne and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Boulogne and Rodez in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.81x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.00x) against Boulogne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.65
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.62
1.29
Rodez xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.29 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boulogne come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 15D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.58 PPG from 43 outings (18W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Boulogne's home form reads 4W 6D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boulogne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.44 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Rodez in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 14D 11L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.86 PPG; Rodez away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rodez in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boulogne
0
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Rodez?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Boulogne, 71% for Rodez — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Boulogne) and 57% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games; Rodez in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 71% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Boulogne's matches and 57% of Rodez's.
Do Boulogne and Rodez tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rodez in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.