Bordeaux 4-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Bordeaux take on Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Quevilly at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Quevilly — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bordeaux at 1.20 PPG versus Quevilly's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bordeaux's 30% rate and Quevilly's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Quevilly trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 60% versus Quevilly 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 60% | Quevilly 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.69 xG and Quevilly 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.615 / defence 0.885 | Quevilly attack 0.829 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.101. Bordeaux's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Bordeaux games / 43 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 28% | Draw 38% | Quevilly 35%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Quevilly 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Bordeaux's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 30% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 28% | Draw 38% | Quevilly 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Bordeaux 0.69 / Quevilly 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.615 / def 0.885 | Quevilly attack 0.829 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Quevilly xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Quevilly kick off?
Bordeaux vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Bordeaux 4 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Bordeaux vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Quevilly part of?
Bordeaux vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 28% chance of winning, Quevilly a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Bordeaux and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Quevilly in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (0.61) and Quevilly's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
38%
2.66
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.50
0.81
Quevilly xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.56
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.3 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.9%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.81 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 15D 20L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (12W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.91 PPG, Quevilly on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bordeaux's home form reads 4W 7D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.91 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 8W 15D 20L in their last 43 games (0.91 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Quevilly away?
Bordeaux's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.95 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Quevilly runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Bordeaux 0-0 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 60%, Quevilly 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bordeaux) and 45% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 35% of games; Quevilly in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 35% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bordeaux's recent games and 45% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Quevilly tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bordeaux run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Quevilly 4-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.69 xG and Quevilly 0.81 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.61 / defence 0.89 against Quevilly attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 28% | Draw 38% | Quevilly 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bordeaux win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 60%, Quevilly 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.91 PPG, Quevilly 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.