Bastia 0-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bastia and Rodez meet at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rodez away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Bastia. A 0.70 PPG lead over Rodez (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bastia, 0 for Rodez and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 53% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 33% | Rodez 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.34 xG and Rodez 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.938 / defence 0.978 | Rodez attack 0.655 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.062. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Bastia games / 36 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 52% | Draw 30% | Rodez 18%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 5.56. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 60% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 52% | Draw 30% | Rodez 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Bastia 1.34 / Rodez 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.938 / def 0.978 | Rodez attack 0.655 / def 1.511 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Bastia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Rodez xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Rodez kick off?
Bastia vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Rodez?
Bastia 0 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Bastia vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Rodez part of?
Bastia vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 52% chance of winning, Rodez a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Bastia and Rodez in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bastia's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.66x) against Bastia's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
52%
1.93
30%
3.31
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.02
0.68
Rodez xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Bastia and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bastia and 0.68 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia's recent record stands at 9W 16D 11L from 36 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 15L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Bastia against 1.03 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 5W 12D 1L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.81 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Rodez in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 9W 16D 11L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Rodez have gone 8W 13D 15L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Rodez away?
Bastia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.50 PPG; Rodez away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bastia or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bastia
4
Draws
4
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Rodez have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 50%, Rodez 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Bastia and 33% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games; Rodez in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bastia's recent matches and 33% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Bastia's recent games and 33% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Rodez tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Rodez in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Bastia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Bastia 0-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.34 xG and Rodez 0.68 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bastia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 0.66 / defence 1.51, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 52% | Draw 30% | Rodez 18%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, Rodez 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.19 PPG, Rodez 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.