Bastia 1-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 37%, yet in-form Bastia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Bastia welcome Nancy to Stade Armand-Césari. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.01 xG and Nancy 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.000 / defence 1.065 | Nancy attack 0.822 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 0.768 / away 1.395. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Bastia games / 2 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 26% | Draw 37% | Nancy 37%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Nancy 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 26% | Draw 37% | Nancy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Bastia 1.01 / Nancy 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.000 / def 1.065 | Nancy attack 0.822 / def 1.316 | league avg home 0.768 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Nancy xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Nancy kick off?
Bastia vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 August 2021 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Nancy?
Bastia 1 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Bastia vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Nancy part of?
Bastia vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 26% chance of winning, Nancy a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bastia and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Nancy in?
Bastia (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Nancy (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
26%
3.79
37%
2.73
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.23
1.22
Nancy xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bastia and 1.22 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bastia have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Nancy in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Nancy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Nancy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Nancy have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Nancy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bastia
2
Draws
2
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 0, Nancy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Nancy?
Nancy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Bastia's recent matches and 0% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bastia's recent games and 100% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Nancy tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nancy in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Nancy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 3, as Bastia and Nancy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.01 xG and Nancy 1.22 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Nancy attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 1/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 26% | Draw 37% | Nancy 37%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 0%, Nancy 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nancy scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.