Bastia 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bastia are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 1 for Guingamp and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 41% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 30% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.97 xG and Guingamp 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.849 / defence 0.736 | Guingamp attack 0.990 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Bastia's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Bastia games / 61 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 38% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Guingamp 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 10% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 38% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Bastia 0.97 / Guingamp 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.849 / def 0.736 | Guingamp attack 0.990 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Guingamp xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Guingamp kick off?
Bastia vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Bastia 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Bastia vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Guingamp part of?
Bastia vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Bastia and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.85x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
38%
2.61
35%
2.86
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.74
0.76
Guingamp xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 13.5 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bastia and 0.76 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 20D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.44 PPG from 61 outings (23W 19D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.31 PPG, Guingamp on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 12W 12D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 20W 20D 21L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Guingamp away?
Bastia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.60 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bastia or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bastia
4
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Guingamp?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 30%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Bastia and 40% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Bastia's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Guingamp tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Guingamp finished level at 1-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.97 xG and Guingamp 0.76 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.85 / defence 0.74 against Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 38% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 27%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.31 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.