Bastia 3-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 46%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 0W 8D 2L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Guingamp are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bastia, 1 for Guingamp and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 45% versus Guingamp 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 42% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.20 xG and Guingamp 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.832 / defence 0.883 | Guingamp attack 0.865 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Data: 53 Bastia games / 53 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 46% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 24%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 4.17. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 50% | Guingamp 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 46% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Bastia 1.20 / Guingamp 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.832 / def 0.883 | Guingamp attack 0.865 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Bastia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Guingamp xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Guingamp kick off?
Bastia vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Bastia 3 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Bastia vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Guingamp part of?
Bastia vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 46% chance of winning, Guingamp a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
Record (6 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 3 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in?
Bastia (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.83x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.31
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.96
0.76
Guingamp xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Bastia and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bastia and 0.76 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 53 games, going 17W 19D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.43 PPG from 53 outings (21W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.32 PPG, Guingamp on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 10W 10D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.30 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Guingamp in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 17W 19D 17L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Guingamp away?
Bastia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.54 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Bastia or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Guingamp in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bastia
4
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Guingamp?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 42%, Guingamp 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bastia) and 42% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Guingamp in 38%; Bastia have failed to score in 35% of games; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bastia's recent matches and 42% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bastia's recent games and 42% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Guingamp tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.20 xG and Guingamp 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 46% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 24%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 42%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.32 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.