Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bastia at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia at Stade Armand-Césari this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Armand-Césari this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Bastia have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 1 for Estac Troyes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bastia in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Estac Troyes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 42% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.52 xG and Estac Troyes 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.966 / defence 0.893 | Estac Troyes attack 0.807 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.145. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Bastia games / 41 Estac Troyes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bastia 54% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 20%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Estac Troyes 5.00. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 40% | Estac Troyes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 54% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Bastia 1.52 / Estac Troyes 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.966 / def 0.893 | Estac Troyes attack 0.807 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Bastia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Estac Troyes xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Bastia vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Bastia 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Bastia vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Estac Troyes part of?
Bastia vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 54% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bastia and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Bastia and Estac Troyes in?
Bastia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.97) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
54%
1.87
26%
3.85
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.34
0.83
Estac Troyes xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
22.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bastia and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bastia and 0.83 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 10D 15L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 9W 15D 17L from 41 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.41 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 9D 9L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 9W 15D 17L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Estac Troyes away?
Bastia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.60 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bastia or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 40%, Estac Troyes 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bastia) and 40% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 30% of games; Estac Troyes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bastia's recent matches and 45% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bastia's recent games and 40% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 4, as Bastia and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.52 xG and Estac Troyes 0.83 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Estac Troyes attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 54% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 20%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 42%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.41 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.