Bastia 0-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Boulogne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand Cesari plays host to Bastia versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand Cesari: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand Cesari. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Boulogne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bastia, 1 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Boulogne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 36% versus Boulogne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 29% | Boulogne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.72 xG and Boulogne 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.634 / defence 1.025 | Boulogne attack 0.818 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.178. Bastia's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Bastia games / 26 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 25% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 40%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Boulogne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 20% | Boulogne 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 25% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Bastia 0.72 / Boulogne 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.634 / def 1.025 | Boulogne attack 0.818 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Boulogne xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Boulogne kick off?
Bastia vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Boulogne?
Bastia 0 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Bastia vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Boulogne part of?
Bastia vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 25% chance of winning, Boulogne a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bastia and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 1W.
What form are Bastia and Boulogne in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Boulogne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.63x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.82x) against Bastia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 59/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
25%
4.07
36%
2.78
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.71
0.99
Boulogne xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 17.9 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Bastia and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Bastia and 0.99 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 4W 11D 13L from 28 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 13L across 28 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Bastia against 1.18 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 3W 4D 7L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boulogne's away record stands at 5W 5D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boulogne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 4W 11D 13L in their last 28 games (0.82 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Boulogne away?
Boulogne's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 0.93 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bastia or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Boulogne in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bastia
0
Draws
2
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Bastia have won 0, Boulogne have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Bastia 0-1 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Boulogne?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 43%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bastia) and 36% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 43% of games; Boulogne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bastia's recent games and 36% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Boulogne tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Boulogne edge out Bastia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Bastia 0-1 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.72 xG and Boulogne 0.99 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.63 / defence 1.02 against Boulogne attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 25% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 40%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 29%, Boulogne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boulogne's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 0.82 PPG, Boulogne 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.