Auxerre 1-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Paris FC in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Auxerre, 2.10 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Auxerre 0W, Paris FC 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Paris FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 57% | Paris FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.41 xG and Paris FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.291 / defence 1.284 | Paris FC attack 1.013 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.000. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Auxerre games / 21 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 50% | Paris FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Auxerre 1.41 / Paris FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.291 / def 1.284 | Paris FC attack 1.013 / def 1.138 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Paris FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Auxerre 1 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris FC part of?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 39% chance of winning, Paris FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Auxerre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.01x) against Auxerre's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.65
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.71
1.30
Paris FC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.30 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 10W 7D 4L from 21 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 5L across 21 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Auxerre against 1.81 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 5W 1D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.33 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Paris FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 7D 4L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris FC away?
Auxerre's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.80 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Paris FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Paris FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 50%, Paris FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Auxerre) and 30% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Paris FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Auxerre's recent matches and 40% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Auxerre's recent games and 30% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris FC tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Auxerre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.41 xG and Paris FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.29 / defence 1.28 against Paris FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 39% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 34%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 57%, Paris FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.76 PPG, Paris FC 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.