Auxerre 4-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Auxerre welcome Laval to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Laval have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 1, Laval 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Laval trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Laval 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Laval 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.22 xG and Laval 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.105 / defence 0.872 | Laval attack 0.976 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. Data: 33 Auxerre games / 71 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Laval 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 60% | Laval 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Auxerre 1.22 / Laval 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.105 / def 0.872 | Laval attack 0.976 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Laval xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Laval kick off?
Auxerre vs Laval kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Laval?
Auxerre 4 - 0 Laval.
Where is Auxerre vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Laval part of?
Auxerre vs Laval is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 41% chance of winning, Laval a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Auxerre and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Laval?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Laval in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Laval (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.28
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Laval xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.98 for Laval, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 25W 21D 25L from 71 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 30L across 71 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.35 PPG, Laval on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 14W 12D 9L from 35 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 13W 7D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Laval in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 25W 21D 25L in their last 71 games (1.35 PPG), while Laval have gone 27W 14D 30L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Laval away?
Auxerre's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.54 PPG; Laval away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Laval runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Laval?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Laval have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Auxerre 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Laval?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Laval 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Auxerre) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Laval in 37%; Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games; Laval in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 40% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Auxerre's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Laval tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Laval in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Laval 4-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.22 xG and Laval 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Laval attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 29%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Laval 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Laval's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.35 PPG, Laval 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.