Auxerre 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 45% as Auxerre take on Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 23 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 2.00 PPG across 4 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 1.25 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.00 vs 0.75) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Guingamp 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Auxerre 50% | Guingamp 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.76 xG and Guingamp 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.104 / defence 0.891 | Guingamp attack 0.596 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 0.735 / away 1.208. Data: 4 Auxerre games / 4 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 31% | Draw 45% | Guingamp 24%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.23 | Draw 2.22 | Guingamp 4.17. The draw (45%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 45% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 17% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Guingamp 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 31% | Draw 45% | Guingamp 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 29% | xG Auxerre 0.76 / Guingamp 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.104 / def 0.891 | Guingamp attack 0.596 / def 0.931 | league avg home 0.735 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Guingamp xG
29%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Guingamp kick off?
Auxerre vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Auxerre 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Auxerre vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Guingamp part of?
Auxerre vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 31% chance of winning, Guingamp a 24% chance, and a 45% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Auxerre and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Guingamp in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.60x) against Auxerre's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
45%
2.21
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Auxerre xG
Total xG
1.40
0.64
Guingamp xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.21
45%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.49
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.7 | 15.9 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.64 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 1L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 25%.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Guingamp in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Auxerre or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Guingamp in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Guingamp tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 50%, Guingamp 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Auxerre and 0% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Guingamp in 50%; Guingamp in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Auxerre's recent matches and 25% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 0% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Guingamp tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Auxerre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.76 xG and Guingamp 0.64 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Guingamp attack 0.60 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 31% | Draw 45% | Guingamp 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Guingamp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 50%, Guingamp 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Guingamp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.