Auxerre 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Auxerre welcome Bastia to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 5L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.40 PPG, Bastia 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 42% versus Bastia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 58% | Bastia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.69 xG and Bastia 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.260 / defence 1.016 | Bastia attack 0.666 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 0.930 / away 1.053. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Auxerre games / 12 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 60% | Draw 26% | Bastia 14%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Bastia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 33% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 60% | Draw 26% | Bastia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Auxerre 1.69 / Bastia 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.260 / def 1.016 | Bastia attack 0.666 / def 1.444 | league avg home 0.930 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Bastia xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Bastia kick off?
Auxerre vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Bastia?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Auxerre vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Bastia part of?
Auxerre vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 60% chance of winning, Bastia a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Auxerre and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Bastia in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Bastia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.26x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
60%
1.68
26%
3.80
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.40
0.71
Bastia xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
38.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.71 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 5W 5D 2L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 2W 5D 5L from 12 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bastia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.75 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Bastia in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Bastia have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Bastia away?
Auxerre's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.83 PPG; Bastia away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Bastia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Bastia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Auxerre's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Bastia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Bastia?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 33%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Auxerre) and 50% (Bastia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Bastia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Auxerre's matches and 50% of Bastia's.
Do Auxerre and Bastia tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.69 xG and Bastia 0.71 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.26 / defence 1.02 against Bastia attack 0.67 / defence 1.44, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 60% | Draw 26% | Bastia 14%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Bastia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.