Annecy 2-1 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Sochaux at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 4L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Sports this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sochaux stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sochaux's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Annecy's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Annecy's 17% rate and Sochaux's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Sochaux trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Annecy 15% | Sochaux 46%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 23% | Sochaux 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.54 xG and Sochaux 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.557 / defence 1.198 | Sochaux attack 1.075 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Annecy's attack strength of 0.557 is below the league average — the 0.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Annecy games / 51 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 15% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 57%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Sochaux 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Annecy's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 17% | Sochaux 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 15% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 31% | xG Annecy 0.54 / Sochaux 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.557 / def 1.198 | Sochaux attack 1.075 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.54
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sochaux xG
31%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Sochaux kick off?
Annecy vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Sochaux?
Annecy 2 - 1 Sochaux.
Where is Annecy vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Sochaux part of?
Annecy vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 15% chance of winning, Sochaux a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Annecy and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Sochaux in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sochaux (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.54. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.5%), 0-2 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
15%
6.75
28%
3.54
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.54
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.89
1.35
Sochaux xG
6.75
15%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
58%
1.72
Win to Nil
4%
26.12
33%
3.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 20.4 | 13.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.54 expected goals for Annecy and 1.35 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Sochaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 3L across 13 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sochaux's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.69 scored and 0.77 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 15% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sochaux in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 0.67 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Annecy or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sochaux in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Sochaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Sochaux 5-1 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Annecy 17% BTTS, Sochaux 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Annecy and 50% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sochaux in 50%; Annecy have failed to score in 67% of games; Sochaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Annecy's recent matches and 33% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Annecy's recent games and 50% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Sochaux tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Sochaux 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Sochaux 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.54 xG and Sochaux 1.35 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.56 / defence 1.20 against Sochaux attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 15% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 57%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 23%, Sochaux 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sochaux's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Sochaux (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.