Annecy 1-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Niort travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Niort — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Niort haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Niort's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.09 xG and Niort 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Niort attack 0.977 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.083. Data: 0 Annecy games / 38 Niort games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 28% | Niort 39%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Niort 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 28% | Niort 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Annecy 1.09 / Niort 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Niort attack 0.977 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Niort (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Niort xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Niort kick off?
Annecy vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Niort?
Annecy 1 - 2 Niort.
Where is Annecy vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Niort part of?
Annecy vs Niort is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, Niort a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Annecy and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Niort in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Niort (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.85) and Niort's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.54
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.31
1.22
Niort xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Annecy and 1.22 for Niort, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Pre-Season
Niort
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Niort runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Niort have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when Niort 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Niort edge out Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.09 xG and Niort 1.22 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Niort attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 28% | Niort 39%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.