Annecy 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Metz (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Annecy against 1.90 for Metz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Annecy 0W, Metz 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Metz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Metz — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 55% | Metz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.58 xG and Metz 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.106 / defence 0.779 | Metz attack 0.881 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 0.982. Annecy's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Annecy games / 15 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Metz 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Metz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG Annecy 1.58 / Metz 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.106 / def 0.779 | Metz attack 0.881 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.412 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Annecy (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Metz xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Metz kick off?
Annecy vs Metz kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Metz?
Annecy 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Annecy vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Metz part of?
Annecy vs Metz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 59% chance of winning, Metz a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Annecy and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 1W.
What form are Annecy and Metz in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Metz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.11x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.88x) against Annecy's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.00
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.26
0.67
Metz xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
31.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Annecy and 0.67 for Metz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 14D 18L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (16W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Annecy against 1.14 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Metz in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Metz have gone 16W 10D 25L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Metz away?
Annecy's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.56 PPG; Metz away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Annecy or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Metz in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 5-1 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
From 5 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 44%, Metz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Annecy) and 52% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Annecy's recent matches and 56% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Annecy's recent games and 52% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Metz tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Metz in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 16, as Annecy and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.58 xG and Metz 0.67 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Metz attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 55%, Metz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.39 PPG, Metz 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.