Annecy 1-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 26 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Bordeaux have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bordeaux have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Bordeaux are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Bordeaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 42% versus Bordeaux 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 47% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.95 xG and Bordeaux 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.831 / defence 1.015 | Bordeaux attack 0.890 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Data: 36 Annecy games / 36 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 32% | Bordeaux 36%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Bordeaux 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Bordeaux 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 32% | Bordeaux 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Annecy 0.95 / Bordeaux 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.831 / def 1.015 | Bordeaux attack 0.890 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bordeaux xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Bordeaux kick off?
Annecy vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Annecy 1 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Annecy vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bordeaux part of?
Annecy vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 32% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Annecy and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Annecy and Bordeaux in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Bordeaux (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.83x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.89x) against Annecy's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.16
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.99
1.03
Bordeaux xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Annecy and 1.03 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 10W 12D 14L from 36 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 7L across 36 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bordeaux by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.42 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 10W 12D 14L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.56 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Bordeaux have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 33%, Bordeaux 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Annecy) and 44% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bordeaux in 39%; Annecy have failed to score in 39% of games; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Annecy's recent matches and 39% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 44% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Bordeaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bordeaux 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.95 xG and Bordeaux 1.03 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Bordeaux attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 32% | Draw 32% | Bordeaux 36%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 47%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bordeaux's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.