Annecy 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Annecy at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Annecy, 3 for Bastia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 38% | Bastia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.34 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.080 / defence 0.874 | Bastia attack 0.502 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.214. Data: 48 Annecy games / 47 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 57% | Draw 28% | Bastia 15%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
Bastia lead the H2H ledger, but Annecy carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Bastia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 57% | Draw 28% | Bastia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 30% | xG Annecy 1.34 / Bastia 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.080 / def 0.874 | Bastia attack 0.502 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Annecy (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Bastia xG
30%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Bastia kick off?
Annecy vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Annecy 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Annecy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bastia part of?
Annecy vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 57% chance of winning, Bastia a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Annecy and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
Record (6 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 2 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Annecy and Bastia in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.08x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.8%), 2-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
57%
1.76
28%
3.52
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.87
0.53
Bastia xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.28
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
4%
25.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Annecy and 0.53 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 17W 13D 17L from 47 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 16L across 47 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.36 PPG, Bastia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 10W 8D 5L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 2W 9D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.04 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Bastia have gone 12W 19D 16L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bastia away?
Annecy's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.65 PPG; Bastia away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 44%, Bastia 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Annecy and 22% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Bastia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Annecy's recent matches and 30% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 22% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bastia tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bastia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bastia 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.34 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Bastia attack 0.50 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 57% | Draw 28% | Bastia 15%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 38%, Bastia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.36 PPG, Bastia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.