Amiens 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Amiens welcome Toulouse to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Toulouse — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Toulouse are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 60% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 50% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.78 xG and Toulouse 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.882 / defence 1.343 | Toulouse attack 1.276 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.067. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Amiens games / 10 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 14% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 60%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | Toulouse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 14% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Amiens 0.78 / Toulouse 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.882 / def 1.343 | Toulouse attack 1.276 / def 1.019 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Toulouse xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Toulouse kick off?
Amiens vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Toulouse?
Amiens 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Amiens vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Toulouse part of?
Amiens vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 14% chance of winning, Toulouse a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Amiens and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Toulouse in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Toulouse (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.88) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
14%
7.34
26%
3.86
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.61
1.83
Toulouse xG
7.34
14%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
2%
45.74
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Amiens and 1.83 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 5D 4L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Amiens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amiens's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.20 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amiens have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Toulouse in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 0.40 PPG; Toulouse away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Amiens or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Toulouse in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Toulouse runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Toulouse 6-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 60%, Toulouse 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Amiens) and 40% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 60%; Amiens have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Amiens's recent matches and 40% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Amiens's recent games and 40% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Toulouse tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Toulouse finished level at 0-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.78 xG and Toulouse 1.83 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against Toulouse attack 1.28 / defence 1.02, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 14% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 60%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 50%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.